Search results for " Duration Analysis"

showing 3 items of 3 documents

MIGRATION OF THE HIGHLY EDUCATED: EVIDENCE FROM RESIDENCE SPELLS OF UNIVERSITY GRADUATES*

2011

We examine the inter-regional migration of university graduates from 1991 to 2003 in Finland. The results show that time matters: two-years before and during the graduation year the hazard rates of migration increase, and then decrease thereafter. Although university graduates are particularly mobile, we find that most of them do not move from their region of studies within 10 years after graduation. The out-migration, i.e., brain drain, is much higher among graduates in the more peripheral universities than in the growth centers (Helsinki in particular). Migration is also substantially more likely for those studying away from the home region than for those studying at home. peerReviewed

onward migrationdiscrete-time duration analysisreturn migrationasumusjaksojen pituudetBrain drainkorkeakoulutusEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)DevelopmentmuuttoliikeHazardGeographyhigher educationDemographic economicsResidenceresidence spellsyliopistosta valmistuneetMigrationuniversity graduatesGraduationJournal of Regional Science
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What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?

2013

This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per capita GDP) are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process. Additionally, we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that, as time goes by, the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher. However, the hazard function is not monotonic: indeed, it …

NinthMacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricsjel:C41Fiscal consolidationsmedia_common.quotation_subjectjel:E62Social Sciencesfiscal consolidations duration analysis Weibull model cubic splines.Monetary economicsGross domestic productConsolidation (business)Weibull modelCubic splinesDebt0502 economics and businessEconomicsOpenness to experience050207 economicsmedia_commonGovernment spending050208 finance05 social sciencesDuration analysi1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFiscal Consolidation Duration Analysis Weibull Model cubic splines.Interest rateDeficit spendingC41Fiscal consolidation8. Economic growthDuration analysisE62Finance
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Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

2015

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

Statistics and ProbabilityEconomics and EconometricsHousing booms and bustsSocial SciencesDuration dependenceBoomWeibull modelEconomicsDuration (project management)Baseline (configuration management)Weibull distributionScience & TechnologyActuarial scienceCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestãohousing booms and busts duration analysis Weibull model duration dependence change-pointsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration analysis8. Economic growthChange pointsChange-pointsDemographic economics:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Statistics Probability and UncertaintyDuration dependenceSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
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